The UK government is about to confirm one of the biggest changes to permanent residence rules in decades. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is expected to make a statement to MPs in the House of Commons today, Monday 2 November 2026, setting out her final decision on "earned settlement", the plan to change when migrants can apply for indefinite leave to remain (ILR).
If you live in the UK on a work visa, or you are planning a move, this decision could affect how long you wait for permanent status. Here is what was proposed, what is expected today, and what you can do now. This article will be updated once the statement has been made.
What is indefinite leave to remain?
Indefinite leave to remain, often called settlement, allows a person to live, work and study in the UK with no time limit. Holders can apply for benefits if eligible and, later, for British citizenship. Under the current rules, most work routes, including the Skilled Worker visa, lead to ILR after five years.
What the government proposed
The earned settlement plan was first set out in the May 2025 immigration white paper and then put to public consultation, "A Fairer Pathway to Settlement", which closed on 12 February 2026 with more than 200,000 responses. The main proposals were:
- A 10-year baseline: the standard qualifying period for ILR would double from five to ten years.
- Longer waits for some lower-paid workers: some, including many care workers, could face up to 15 years.
- Time added or taken off: the qualifying period could be shortened or extended based on contribution and conduct, such as English level, earnings, use of public funds and compliance with immigration rules.
- A clean record: a clean criminal record would be required for settlement.
- Exceptions: partners of British citizens would continue to qualify after five years.
- Retrospective effect: the new rules would apply to people already in the UK who have not yet settled, not only to new arrivals.
Why the government wants to change the rules
The Home Office says net migration added around 2.6 million people to the UK population between 2021 and 2024, and estimates that about 1.6 million people could become eligible to settle between 2026 and 2030. Ministers argue that automatic settlement after five years puts pressure on public finances, and the Home Secretary has pointed in particular to the Health and Care Worker visa, which brought 616,000 arrivals between 2022 and 2024, more than half of them dependants.
Critics see it differently. The Institute for Public Policy Research estimates that skilled workers and dependants due to settle under the current rules would make a net lifetime contribution of around £115 billion in taxes. Several Labour MPs have called the retrospective approach unfair and warned it could worsen staff shortages, especially in social care.
What to expect from today's statement
According to BBC reporting this morning, the final policy is likely to be softened for most people currently working in social care, who were facing waits of up to 15 years. Housing Secretary Angela Rayner had criticised applying the changes to workers already in the UK, while Prime Minister Andy Burnham said last week that settlement should be earned rather than granted automatically.
The most important detail to watch is the transitional arrangements: who is protected, from what date, and whether people close to the five-year mark can still settle under the current rules. The Home Secretary told MPs in September that the policy would be set out well before the first people who arrived in 2022 become eligible.
Who could be affected
- Skilled Worker visa holders approaching five years in the UK, especially those who arrived in 2022 and 2023
- Health and Care Worker visa holders and their dependants
- Dependants on any work route, whose settlement depends on the main applicant
- Employers sponsoring foreign staff, who may need to sponsor workers for longer and budget for higher Immigration Skills Charge costs
- Future applicants weighing up the UK against other destinations
What you should do now
- Don't make decisions based on headlines. The new rules only apply once a Statement of Changes to the Immigration Rules is laid before Parliament. Check the effective date and the transitional rules.
- Check your timeline. Work out exactly when you would qualify under the current five-year route.
- Keep your records in order. Payslips, P60s, tax records, English test certificates and a record of your absences from the UK may all matter under a contribution-based system.
- Review your English level. Higher English requirements are part of the wider reforms, and stronger English may reduce your qualifying period.
- Get professional advice. If you are close to five years, speak to a regulated immigration adviser or solicitor before applying.
Today's announcement will shape the plans of hundreds of thousands of people already living in the UK. Whatever the final rules look like, preparation matters: knowing your dates, keeping your documents ready and getting reliable advice early. On Emooves, you can follow UK visa guides and connect with verified immigration professionals who can help you plan your next step.